The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.
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Serbia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SRB 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 45,911 46,500 53,300 60,800 69,200 75,000 GDP Real, % 4.2% -1.0% 7.5% 2.3% 1.0% 3.0% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,593 6,727 7,761 8,878 10,148 11,055 Inflation, % EOY 1.8% 1.3% 7.9% 15.4% 7.9% 4.6% Net FDI (EUR M) 3,627 2,883 3,678 3,830 3,183 3,525 Public Debt, % GDP 52.0% 57.4% 57.1% 56.5% 56.0% 55.5% External Debt, % GDP 61.7% 66.3% 68.4% 67.2% 65.2% 62.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 13,800 13,800 16,600 18,200 18,600 19,400 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.8% -12.7% -13.1% -17.9% -18.7% -18.9 FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY) 117.6 117.6 117.6 117.3 117.9 118.5 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 466 512 555 630 703 764 Unemployment, % 10.4% 9.7% 11.4% 9.8% 9.8% 9.4% Population (M) 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 Doing Business List 48 44 – – – Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba2; Stable S&P BB+; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Croatia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
HRV 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 53,969 49,300 58,300 66,000 70,200 74,700 GDP Real, % 2.9% -8.0% 13.1% 5.8% 1.5% 2.6% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 13,342 12,186 14,990 17,050 18,249 19,499 Inflation, % EOY 1.4% -0.7% 5.5% 13.5% 3.8% 3.1% Net FDI (EUR M) 917 937 2,798 1,848 2,106 2,315 Public Debt, % GDP 72.2% 88.7% 78.3% 71.0% 68.9% 66.3% External Debt, % GDP 75.5% 83.1% 76.5% 70.0% 66.7% 64.4% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 18,560 18,900 25,000 30,000 32,700 34,800 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -19.3% -17.5% -18.2% -24.4% -24.6% -25.3% FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY) 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 – – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 882 913 946 1013 1,033 1,148 Unemployment, % 6.6% 7.5% 7.6% 7.1% 6.9% 6.3% Population (M) 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 Doing Business List 58 51 – – – Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Baa2; Stable S&P BBB+; Stable Fitch BBB+; Stable Slovenia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SLO 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 48,007 46,297 52,200 59,300 63,700 68,000 GDP Real, % 3.2% -5.5% 8.2% 4.8% 0.5% 2.2% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 22,983 22,014 24,770 28,142 30,208 32,256 Inflation, % EOY 1.8% -1.2% 4.9% 10.0% 5.4% 4.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 1,248 678 417 1,186 892 1,020 Public Debt, % GDP 65.6% 79.8% 74.5% 70.0% 69.5% 69.0% External Debt, % GDP 91.7% 102.7% 97.3% 90.7% 88.0% 85.6% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 844 900 900 900 900 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP 2.7% 5.3% 1.7% -3.5% -3.6% -2.9 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 1,134 1,198 1,264 1,328 1,398 1,457 Unemployment, % 4.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Doing Business List 40 37 – – – – Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Stable S&P AA-; Stable Fitch A; Stable Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
B&H 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 17,630 17,370 19,750 22,450 24,160 25,530 GDP Real, % 2.6% -4.5% 7.5% 3.9% 1.6% 2.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,160 4,986 5,724 6,545 7,075 7510 Inflation, % EOY 0.3% -1.6% 6.3% 17.0% 4.2% 4.1% Net FDI (EUR M) 458 330 454 404 459 511 Public Debt, % GDP 32.2% 35.7% 33.3% 29.5% 28.3% 27.5% External Debt, % GDP 23.1% 25.5% 24.2% 22.9% 22.7% 22.9% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 6,342 7,100 8,400 8,400 8,900 9,500 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -22.3% -18.0% -18.0% -21.6% -23.6% -24.4% FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 469 472 511 566 592 612 Unemployment, % 15.7% 15.9% 17.4% 16.0% 15.7% 15.2% Population (M) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 Doing Business 89 90 – – – – Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B3; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch – North Macedonia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
NM 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 11,200 10,800 11,600 13,500 15,400 16,600 GDP Real, % 3.6% -4.5% 5.5% 2.2% 1.4% 2.6% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,314 5,135 5,527 6,433 7,311 7,900 Inflation, % EOY 0.4% 2.3% 4.9% 20.0% 6.8% 5.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 326 205 383 500 554 598 Public Debt, % GDP 48.9% 60.2% 60.8% 58.9% 58.6% 59.4% External Debt, % GDP 72.2% 80.2% 81.9% 78.8% 78.0% 78.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,263 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,400 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -16.8% -16.8% -20.2% -23.9% -22.9% -22.0% FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY) 61.5 61.7 61.6 61.7 61.7 61.7 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 410 426 466 514 553 592 Unemployment, % 17.3% 16.4% 15.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.4% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Doing Business List 10 17 – – – – Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s – S&P BB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Negative Montenegro
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
MNE 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 4,908 4,193 4,955 5,868 6,327 6,669 GDP Real, % 3.6% -15.2% 13.0% 7.2% 2.8% 3.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 7,902 6,744 7,973 9,447 10,187 10,739 Inflation, % EOY 1.0% -0.9% 4.6% 16.5% 4.2% 3.8% Net FDI (EUR M) 344 470 580 722 734 734 Public Debt, % GDP 78.8% 105.2% 84.0% 75.3% 74.0% 73.1% External Debt, % GDP 166.6% 208.4% 191.5% 161.5% 149.5% 141.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,221 1,279 1,620 1,910 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -42.1% -39.2% -38.7% -42.3% -47.6% -49.1% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 515 506 532 590 627 655 Unemployment, % 15.1% 17.9% 16.7% 15.0% 14.6% 14.0% Population (M) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Doing Business 50 50 – – – – Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Stable Fitch – Albania
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
ALB 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 13,600 12,700 14,400 17,200 18,200 19,100 GDP Real, % 2.2% -6.1% 7.6% 3.7% 2.6% 2.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 4,766.6 5,015.4 5,093 6,093 6,460 6,808.1 Inflation, % EOY 1.4% 1.4% 2.2% 6.5% 3.6% 3.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 1079 933 1031 6341 – – Public Debt, % GDP 63.8% 76.6% 80% 68.9% 67.5% 66.4% External Debt, % GDP 30.48% 31.77% 57.3% 61.7% 51.3% – Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,359.6 3,583.6 4,096 5,382 5,768 6,503.9 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.8% -15.4% -13.2% -12.6% -11.8% -10.5% FX Rate, EUR/ALL (EOY) 121.7 123.7 120.76 114.23 119.62 119.62 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 453 464 488 520 – – Unemployment, % 12.9% 13.6% 11.4% 11.3% 10.2% 9.3% Population (M) 2.9 2.9 2.83 2.8 2.8 2.8 Doing Business 69.51 67.7 – – – – Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy.
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch –
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