The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.
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Serbia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SRB 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 46,800 53,300 60,400 69,500 74,600 79,600 GDP Real, % -0.9% 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.6% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,727 7,761 9,067 10,706 11,487 12,251 Inflation, % EOY 1.3% 7.9% 15.1% 7.6% 3.4% 3.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 2,883 3,678 4,348 4,309 4,103 4,218 Public Debt, % GDP 57.4% 57.1% 55.7% 52.3% 51.8% 51.0% External Debt, % GDP 66.3% 68.4% 69.4% 64.7% 63.0% 62.6% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 13,800 16,600 20,000 25,500 27,100 28,900 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -12.7% -13.1% -18.9% -11.8% -11.9% -12.0% FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY) 117.6 117.6 117.3 117.2 117.2 117.5 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 512 555 629 722 788 840 Unemployment, % 9.7% 11.4% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4% 9.2% Population (M) 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba2; Stable S&P BB+; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Croatia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
HRV 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 50,500 58,300 68,000 75,900 80,400 85,500 GDP Real, % -8.5% 13.1% 6.2% 2.8% 2.5% 3.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 12,474 14,990 17,635 19,685 20,972 22,431 Inflation, % EOY -0.7% 5.5% 13.1% 4.5% 2.9% 2.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 707 2,798 3,672 2,808 3,135 3,249 Public Debt, % GDP 86.9% 78.3% 68.2% 63.3% 61.1% 58.3% External Debt, % GDP 81.8% 80.9% 72.9% 84.5% 81.7% 79.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 18,900 25,000 27,800 3,500 3,700 4,100 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.5% -19.6% -26.7% -22.6% -22.4% -22.7% FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY) 7.5 7.5 7.5 – – – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 890 923 976 1,100 1,185 1,259 Unemployment, % 7.5% 7.6% 7.1% 6.5% 6.1% 5.5% Population (M) 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Baa2; Positive S&P BBB+; Positive Fitch BBB+; Positive Slovenia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SLO 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 47,000 52,200 57,000 63,100 66,000 69,500 GDP Real, % -4.3% 8.2% 2.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 22,361 24,770 27,061 29,932 31,332 32,973 Inflation, % EOY -1.2% 4.9% 10.3% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% Net FDI (EUR M) 282 418 1,311 504 792 904 Public Debt, % GDP 79.8% 74.5% 72.3% 69.5% 69.0% 68.0% External Debt, % GDP 102.7% 97.3% 90.9% 91.8% 91.1% 89.7% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,071 2,002 2,137 2,155 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP 5.3% 1.7% -3.8% 0.7% -0.4% -0.7% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 1,252 1,317 1,322 1,436 1,519 1,594 Unemployment, % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Stable S&P AA-; Stable Fitch A; Stable Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
BIH 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 18,194 20,468 23,273 26,487 27,337 29,074 GDP Real, % -2.9% 7.3% 3.8% 1.6% 1.8% 3.1% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,237 5,934 6,817 7,864 8,284 8,946 Inflation, % EOY -1.6% 6.3% 14.7% 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% Net FDI (EUR M) 330 532 698 821 875 930 Public Debt, % GDP 35.7% 33.3% 29.4% 25.4% 25.9% 25.2% External Debt, % GDP 25.5% 24.2% 20.8% 18.4% 18.3% 18.1% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 7,100 8,400 8,200 8,300 8,700 9,200 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.6% -17.9% -22.4% -19.7% -20.8% -20.7% FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 491 512 574 641 703 749 Unemployment, % 15.9% 17.4% 15.4% 13.2% 12.9% 12.5% Population (M) 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B3; Stable S&P B+; Stable Fitch – North Macedonia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
NM 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 10,800 11,600 13,033 13,655 14,460 15,415 GDP Real, % -4.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2.3% 3.4% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,135 5,527 7,096 7,450 7,904 8,443 Inflation, % EOY 2.3% 4.9% 18.7% 3.6% 4.1% 2.8% Net FDI (EUR M) 205 383 658 519 506 555 Public Debt, % GDP 59.7% 61.0% 59.1% 62.1% 63.1% 62.7% External Debt, % GDP 80.2% 81.9% 82.8% 83.9% 84.8% 85.4% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,400 3,600 3,900 4,500 4,900 5,100 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -16.8% -20.2% -26.7% -18.9% -20.6% -20.3% FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY) 61.7 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 426 467 518 598 673 744 Unemployment, % 16.4% 15.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.7% 12.4% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s – S&P BB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Montenegro
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
MNE 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 4,193 4,955 5,924 6,874 7,353 7,612 GDP Real, % -15.2% 13.0% 6.4% 6.0% 3.7% 3.3% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,744 7,973 9,591 11,103 11,917 12,357 Inflation, % EOY -0.9% 4.6% 17.2% 4.3% 4.1% 2.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 470 580 782 431 566 624 Public Debt, % GDP 105.2% 84.0% 69.2% 60.3% 62.5% 63.4% External Debt, % GDP 208.4% 191.5% 159.0% 131.5% 130.6% 132.7% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,746 1,737 1,915 1,624 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -39.2% -38.7% -45.1% -43.6% -45.0% -47.4% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 524 532 712 792 867 961 Unemployment, % 17.9% 16.7% 14.7% 13.1% 12.8% 12.4% Population (M) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Stable Fitch – Albania
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
ALB 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 10.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 13.3 15.2 118.0 21.1 GDP Real, % 3.3% 3.8% 4.1% 2.1% -3.3 8.9% 4.9% 3.7% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 3,727.1 4,024.3 4,448.3 4,804.9 4.677.1 5,356.4 6,433.3 7,577.2 Inflation, % EOY 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6 % 2.0% 6.7% 4.7% Net FDI (EUR M) 942.5 899.9 1020 1073 937 1031 1372 1492 Public Debt, % GDP 68.7% 66.9% 65.1% 65.73% 74.3% 74.5% 64.46% 61.5% External Debt, % GDP 38,11% 37,20% 35,58% 35,30% 39,10% 37.83% 34.26% 32.5% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 34,27% 32,89% 32,27% 30,42% 35,20% 36.65% 30.20% 29.0 % Trade Account Balance, % GDP 2,945.0 2,995.9 3,367.3 3,359.6 3,942.4 4,972.2 4,952.1 5,715.8 FX Rate, EUR/ALL (EOY) -16.8% -15.1% -13.87% -13.7% -14.5 -13.4% -10.4% -9.1% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 15.6% 14.1% 12.8% 12.0% 12.2% 12.0% 11.3% 10.7% Unemployment, % 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.83 2.8 2.41 Population (M) 60.50 68.90 68.70 69.51 67.7 – – – Doing Business 69.51 67.7 – – – Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy.
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch –
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