Market Opportunities

The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.

Karanovic & Partners is dedicated to sharing some of the most interesting opportunities that the region has to offer. We bring you a flavour of what the SEE region has in store – for more information please contact us at bd@karanovicpartners.com.

• Serbia

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  SRB	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	45,911	46,500	53,300	60,400	69,300	75,400
  GDP Real, %	4.2%	-1.0%	7.5%	2.3%	1.3%	3.0%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	6,593	6,727	7,761	8,820	10,161	11,113
  Inflation, % EOY	1.8%	1.3%	7.9%	15.1%	9.0%	4.4%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	3,627	2,883	3,678	4,288	3,534	3,468
  Public Debt, % GDP	52.0%	57.4%	57.1%	55.7%	55.5%	54.7%
  External Debt, % GDP	61.7%	66.3%	68.4%	64.0%	58.6%	56.7%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	13,800	13,800	16,600	20,000	20,500	20,500
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-13.8%	-12.7%	-13.1%	-17.8%	-17.2%	-17.1
  FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY)	117.6	117.6	117.6	117.3	117.7	118.2
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	466	512	555	635	710	769
  Unemployment, %	10.4%	9.7%	11.4%	9.7%	9.6%	9.4%
  Population (M)	7.0	6.9	6.9	6.8	6.8	6.8
  Doing Business List	48	44	–	–	–

  Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	Ba2; Stable
  S&P	BB+; Stable
  Fitch	BB+; Stable

   

• Croatia

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  HRV	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	53,969	49,300	58,300	67,400	71,600	76,100
  GDP Real, %	2.9%	-8.0%	13.1%	6.3%	1.0%	2.1%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	13,342	12,186	14,990	17,427	18,594	19,868
  Inflation, % EOY	1.4%	-0.7%	5.5%	13.1%	3.7%	3.1%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	917	937	2,798	2,494	2,721	2,892
  Public Debt, % GDP	72.2%	88.7%	78.3%	68.2%	66.2%	63.7%
  External Debt, % GDP	75.5%	83.1%	76.5%	73.1%	68.6%	67.2%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	18,560	18,900	25,000	27,800	3,500	3,700
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-19.3%	-17.5%	-18.2%	-26.7%	-26.3%	-27.4%
  FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY)	7.4	7.5	7.5	7.5	–	–
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	882	913	946	978	1,047	1,103
  Unemployment, %	6.6%	7.5%	7.6%	7.1%	6.9%	6.3%
  Population (M)	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.8
  Doing Business List	58	51	–	–	–

  Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	Baa2; Stable
  S&P	BBB+; Stable
  Fitch	BBB+; Stable

   

• Slovenia

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  SLO	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	48,007	46,297	52,200	59,000	64,300	68,600
  GDP Real, %	3.2%	-5.5%	8.2%	5.4%	1.3%	2.5%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	22,983	22,014	24,770	27,987	30,486	32,564
  Inflation, % EOY	1.8%	-1.2%	4.9%	8.8%	6.3%	3.2%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	1,248	678	417	1,044	826	965
  Public Debt, % GDP	65.6%	79.8%	74.5%	70.8%	71.3%	70.6%
  External Debt, % GDP	91.7%	102.7%	97.3%	87.8%	78.7%	71.3%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	844	900	900	900	900	–
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	2.7%	5.3%	1.7%	-4.3%	-3.2%	-2.2
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	1,134	1,218	1,282	1,313	1,395	1,470
  Unemployment, %	4.4%	5.0%	4.5%	4.2%	4.0%	3.9%
  Population (M)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
  Doing Business List	40	37	–	–	–	–

  Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	A3; Stable
  S&P	AA-; Stable
  Fitch	A; Stable

   

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  B&H	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	17,630	17,370	19,750	22,430	23,910	25,270
  GDP Real, %	2.6%	-4.5%	7.5%	3.9%	1.6%	2.5%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	5,160	4,986	5,724	6,539	7,003	7,433
  Inflation, % EOY	0.3%	-1.6%	6.3%	14.8%	3.7%	3.1%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	458	330	467	584	581	644
  Public Debt, % GDP	32.2%	35.7%	33.3%	31.7%	30.1%	28.7%
  External Debt, % GDP	23.1%	25.5%	24.2%	21.1%	21.3%	21.6%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	6,342	7,100	8,400	8,200	8,700	9,200
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-22.3%	-18.0%	-18.0%	-22.1%	-21.8%	-21.7%
  FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY)	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	469	472	511	572	616	647
  Unemployment, %	15.7%	15.9%	17.4%	15.4%	14.6%	14.1%
  Population (M)	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.4	3.4
  Doing Business	89	90	–	–	–	–

  Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	B3; Stable
  S&P	B; Positive
  Fitch	–

   

• North Macedonia

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  NM	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	11,200	10,800	11,600	13,500	15,100	16,400
  GDP Real, %	3.6%	-4.5%	5.5%	2.1%	1.3%	2.6%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	5,314	5,135	5,527	6,424	7,211	7,800
  Inflation, % EOY	0.4%	2.3%	4.9%	18.7%	6.5%	4.9%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	326	205	383	675	544	590
  Public Debt, % GDP	48.9%	50.8%	52.0%	48.7%	48.0%	47.5%
  External Debt, % GDP	72.2%	80.2%	81.9%	85.0%	80.0%	78.0%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	3,263	3,400	3,600	3,800	4,200	4,600
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-16.8%	-16.8%	-20.2%	-26.8%	-24.9%	-24.2%
  FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY)	61.5	61.7	61.6	61.7	61.7	61.7
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	410	426	466	510	565	614
  Unemployment, %	17.3%	16.4%	15.7%	14.4%	14.3%	14.0%
  Population (M)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
  Doing Business List	10	17	–	–	–	–

  Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	–
  S&P	BB-; Stable
  Fitch	BB+; Negative

   

• Montenegro

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  MNE	2019	2020	2021	2022E	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	4,908	4,193	4,955	5,797	6,282	6,559
  GDP Real, %	3.6%	-15.2%	13.0%	6.1%	3.3%	3.4%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	7,902	6,744	7,973	9,332	10,114	10,562
  Inflation, % EOY	1.0%	-0.9%	4.6%	17.2%	2.6%	3.7%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	344	470	580	782	798	794
  Public Debt, % GDP	78.8%	105.2%	84.0%	76.2%	74.0%	76.2%
  External Debt, % GDP	166.6%	208.4%	191.5%	162.5%	151.6%	152.8%
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	1,366	1,746	1,737	1,907	–	–
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-42.1%	-39.2%	-38.7%	-46.2%	-46.4%	-48.4%
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	515	524	532	592	661	703
  Unemployment, %	15.1%	17.9%	16.7%	14.7%	14.0%	13.8%
  Population (M)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
  Doing Business	50	50	–	–	–	–

  Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	B1; Stable
  S&P	B; Stable
  Fitch	–

   

• Albania

  Macroeconomic Snapshot

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators

  ALB	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023F	2024F
  GDP Nominal (EUR M)	13,600	12,700	14,400	17,200	18,200	19,100
  GDP Real, %	2.2%	-6.1%	7.6%	3.7%	2.6%	2.5%
  GDP Per Capita (EUR)	4,766.6	5,015.4	5,093	6,093	6,460	6,808.1
  Inflation, % EOY	1.4%	1.4%	2.2%	6.5%	3.6%	3.0%
  Net FDI (EUR M)	1079	933	1031	1372	–	–
  Public Debt, % GDP	63.8%	76.6%	80%	68.9%	67.5%	66.4%
  External Debt, % GDP	30.48%	31.77%	57.3%	61.7%	51.3%	–
  Foreign Reserves (EUR M)	3,359.6	3,583.6	4,096	5,382	5,768	6,503.9
  Trade Account Balance, % GDP	-13.8%	-15.4%	-13.2%	-12.6%	-11.8%	-10.5%
  FX Rate, EUR/ALL (EOY)	121.7	123.7	120.76	114.23	119.61	119.61
  AVG Net Salary (EUR)	453	464	488	520	563	–
  Unemployment, %	12.9%	13.6%	11.4%	11.3%	10.2%	9.3%
  Population (M)	2.9	2.9	2.83	2.8	2.8	2.8
  Doing Business	69.51	67.7	–	–	–	–

  Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy. 

   

  Ratings:

  Moody’s	B1; Stable
  S&P	B; Positive
  Fitch	–