The SEE countries have shown their potential numerous times, becoming an investment hub with a reinforced business climate led by a wave of reforms, privatisations, and developments of new industries. These countries have managed to attract a high influx of FDI’s thanks to low labour and utility costs, accompanied by a multilingual and qualified workforce. The governments of the SEE countries remain committed to maintaining a friendly investor climate by pushing forward with the reforms and offering incentives – foreign investors can own up to 100% interest in a company, open bank accounts in domestic and foreign currencies, and employ foreign citizens easily. Relaxed regulations on foreign transfers of income and protection from nationalisation, expropriation, and requisition, are a further testament to the business climate.
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Serbia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SRB 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 46,800 53,300 60,400 69,200 74,600 79,200 GDP Real, % -0.9% 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,727 7,761 8,820 10,321 11,236 12,048 Inflation, % EOY 1.3% 7.9% 15.1% 7.5% 4.5% 3.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 2,883 3,678 4,288 4,498 4,103 4,198 Public Debt, % GDP 57.4% 57.1% 55.7% 53.5% 52.0% 50.9% External Debt, % GDP 66.3% 68.4% 69.4% 64.3% 63.1% 62.6% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 13,800 16,600 20,000 24,900 26,500 28,600 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -12.7% -13.1% -18.9% -11.8% -12.4% -12.6% FX Rate, EUR/RSD (EOY) 117.6 117.6 117.3 117.2 117.6 118.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 512 555 629 718 781 831 Unemployment, % 9.7% 11.4% 9.7% 9.6% 9.4% 9.0% Population (M) 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Ba2; Stable S&P BB+; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Croatia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
HRV 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 50,500 58,300 68,000 73,100 77,800 82,800 GDP Real, % -8.5% 13.1% 6.2% 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 12,474 14,990 17,635 19,069 20,395 21,814 Inflation, % EOY -0.7% 5.5% 13.1% 4.5% 3.0% 2.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 707 2,798 3,672 2,485 2,801 2,981 Public Debt, % GDP 86.9% 78.3% 68.2% 63.8% 61.4% 58.6% External Debt, % GDP 81.8% 80.9% 72.9% 81.5% 78.6% 76.4% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 18,900 25,000 27,800 3,500 3,700 4,100 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.5% -19.6% -26.7% -22.7% -23.0% -23.3% FX Rate, EUR/HRK (EOY) 7.5 7.5 7.5 – – – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 890 923 976 1,094 1,177 1,249 Unemployment, % 7.5% 7.6% 7.1% 6.5% 6.1% 5.5% Population (M) 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 Source: Croatian National Bank, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s Baa2; Positive S&P BBB+; Positive Fitch BBB+; Positive Slovenia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
SLO 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 47,000 52,200 57,000 62,000 64,900 68,400 GDP Real, % -4.3% 8.2% 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% 2.3% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 22,361 24,770 27,061 29,421 30,801 32,456 Inflation, % EOY -1.2% 4.9% 10.3% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% Net FDI (EUR M) 282 418 1,311 682 779 889 Public Debt, % GDP 79.8% 74.5% 72.3% 69.5% 68.5% 67.0% External Debt, % GDP 102.7% 97.3% 90.9% 91.9% 91.2% 89.8% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,071 2,002 2,137 2,155 – – Trade Account Balance, % GDP 5.3% 1.7% -3.8% 0.7% -0.6% -0.8% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 1,252 1,317 1,322 1,427 1,505 1,580 Unemployment, % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Sources: National Statistical Office, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s A3; Stable S&P AA-; Stable Fitch A; Stable Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
BIH 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 18,194 20,468 23,273 25,434 26,951 28,528 GDP Real, % -2.9% 7.3% 3.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,237 5,934 6,817 7,554 8,169 8,780 Inflation, % EOY -1.6% 6.3% 14.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% Net FDI (EUR M) 330 532 698 865 916 941 Public Debt, % GDP 35.7% 33.3% 29.4% 27.7% 27.4% 26.7% External Debt, % GDP 25.5% 24.2% 20.8% 20.3% 20.1% 20.2% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 7,100 8,400 8,200 8,300 8,700 9,200 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -17.6% -17.9% -22.4% -21.9% -22.1% -22.0% FX Rate, EUR/BAM (EOY) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 491 512 574 646 709 756 Unemployment, % 15.9% 17.4% 15.4% 13.1% 12.7% 12.5% Population (M) 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Sources: Statistical Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B3; Stable S&P B+; Stable Fitch – North Macedonia
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
NM 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 10,800 11,600 12,898 14,235 15,256 16,259 GDP Real, % -4.5% 3.9% 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 5,135 5,527 7,023 7,766 8,340 8,905 Inflation, % EOY 2.3% 4.9% 18.7% 5.3% 3.5% 3.1% Net FDI (EUR M) 205 383 658 712 778 845 Public Debt, % GDP 59.7% 61.0% 59.7% 59.6% 61.0% 62.1% External Debt, % GDP 80.2% 81.9% 83.7% 82.8% 83.8% 84.1% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,400 3,600 3,863 4,539 4,600 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -16.8% -20.2% -27.0% -19.2% -19.4% -19.1% FX Rate, EUR/MKD (EOY) 61.7 61.5 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.6 AVG Net Salary (EUR) 426 467 518 595 640 684 Unemployment, % 16.4% 15.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.9% 12.8% Population (M) 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Sources: National Bank of North Macedonia, National Statistical Office, IMF, Erste Bank, UniCredit Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s – S&P BB-; Stable Fitch BB+; Stable Montenegro
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
MNE 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 4,193 4,955 5,924 6,851 7,327 7,576 GDP Real, % -15.2% 13.0% 6.4% 5.2% 3.3% 3.2% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 6,744 7,973 9,536 11,030 11,799 12,200 Inflation, % EOY -0.9% 4.6% 17.2% 6.0% 2.6% 3.6% Net FDI (EUR M) 470 580 782 589 623 682 Public Debt, % GDP 105.2% 84.0% 69.2% 58.4% 62.1% 66.9% External Debt, % GDP 208.4% 191.5% 159.0% 139.0% 136.8% 137.3% Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 1,746 1,737 1,915 1,624 – Trade Account Balance, % GDP -39.2% -38.7% -45.1% -44.0% -45.5% -48.1% AVG Net Salary (EUR) 524 532 712 792 – – Unemployment, % 17.9% 16.7% 14.7% 13.6% 13.2% 13.1% Population (M) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Sources: Statistical Office of Montenegro, IMF, Erste Bank, World Bank
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Stable Fitch – Albania
Macroeconomic Snapshot
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
ALB 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F GDP Nominal (EUR M) 13,800 13,300 15,200 18,000 21,100 22,200 GDP Real, % 2.1% -3.3% 8.9% 4.9% 3.7% 3.8% GDP Per Capita (EUR) 4,804 4,677 5,356 6,433 7,577 8,004 Inflation, % EOY 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 6.7% 4.7% 3.0% Net FDI (EUR M) 1079 933 1031 1372 6861 – Public Debt, % GDP 65.8% 74.3% 74.5% 64.5% 61.5% 59.8% External Debt, % GDP 35.30% 39.10% 37.83% 34.32% 34.21²% – Foreign Reserves (EUR M) 3,359.6 3,583.6 4,096 5,382 5,540³ 6,503.9 Trade Account Balance, % GDP -13.8% -14.5% -13.4% -10.4% -9.1% -9.3% FX Rate, EUR/ALL (EOY) 121.7 123.7 120.76 114.93 103.37 – AVG Net Salary (EUR) 453 464 488 520 700 900 Unemployment, % 12.0% 12.2% 12.0% 11.3% 10.7% 10.2% Population (M) 2.9 2.9 2.83 2.8 2.79 2.78 Doing Business 69.51 67.7 – – – – Sources: Information Technology Audit in Statistics Institute (INSTAT), Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy.
Ratings:
Moody’s B1; Stable S&P B; Positive Fitch –
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